Project Vision 21

Recent studies seem to confirm that the amount of waste orbiting the Earth has reached such a level that this “space debris” is already multiplying due to collisions between these objects, threatening not only satellites and space travel, but even, if the problem worsens, humans could become “trapped” on this planet.

The so-called “Kessler Syndrome” was presented as a theoretical scenario in 1978 by Donald J. Kessler, a NASA scientist, that at some point the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) would be so high that collisions between satellites and space debris would become self-sustaining, leading to a cascading chain reaction of these collisions.

That theory is now a reality, 46 years later, or very close to being one, according to Holger Krag, head of Space Safety at the European Space Agency (ESA), who, in a statement, said that current technology is “insufficient to prevent the risks” generated by the rapid accumulation of debris in space.

The Earth's orbital environment has become fragile, endangering the long-term sustainability of space exploration, including the interruption on Earth of services such as the Internet, television, telephony, communications and satellite navigation.

The Kessler Syndrome seems to connect naturally with the Dunning-Kruger Effect, so called for the two surnames of the psychologists who described how those with limited knowledge or skills often overestimate what they know or what they can do, while the opposite happens for those with greater knowledge or skills.

In other words, the Kessler Syndrome appears to be (metaphorically or literally) the space-based expression of the Dunning-Kruger Effect, as both focus on the human tendency to underestimate the complexity of a situation and overestimate our ability to control the situation, whether at a personal level or in terms of the sustainability of the space environment.

One might assume, for example, that since space is vast, the probability of satellite collisions is negligible, while ignoring the growing orbital clutter and debris cascade.

The same individual cognitive bias (the Dunning-Kruger Effect) that perpetuates errors in personal or professional settings appears to have contributed to the failure to adequately recognize the growing problem of space debris (the Kessler Syndrome).

In other words, the Kessler Syndrome can be seen as a metaphor for uncontrolled cognitive errors. That is, in the same way that a satellite collision can trigger a cascade of debris, a mistaken belief, fueled by overconfidence, can lead to larger systemic failures.

To continue the comparison, just as we surround our planet with waste, we also constantly surround ourselves with “trash,” presented as “entertainment”, “information,” “education”, “expert opinion”, and even “education”, among many other names.

One day, perhaps soon, there will be so much space junk and existential trash around our planet and around ourselves that the accumulation of “cognitive waste” will lead us into a spiral of self-reinforcing bad decisions, preventing us from seeing the “space” (literal and metaphorical) for personal growth and co-creation.

The solution lies in encouraging self-awareness and fostering continuous learning, humility, and a commitment to evolving competence.

The rapid, inevitable, profound, irreversible, and unsolicited social and technological changes of today’s world seem to indicate that we have disconnected from the future. As a result, we forget the past and cling to a present as distressing as the reality surrounding us—or so says an influential Spanish writer and thinker.

"Never before has the present been so disconnected from the future. In the past, the future offered more guarantees of continuity, but today the question of the future is agonizing," Francisco Jarauta recently stated.

I believe one of the reasons for this is that we are not preparing for a future that is no longer a continuation of the past nor a repetition of the present. And it’s not because we lack the ability to prepare for ongoing disruptions, but because we’ve simply stopped playing seriously. For this very reason, we have abandoned thinking.

In his early childhood, my son and his peers would spend entire afternoons playing. I often observed that, regardless of the game, someone would propose changing the rules, leading to three basic responses: accepting the changes and continuing to play, rejecting the changes and creating conflict, or proposing modifications to the new rules.

It took me many years to understand that this rule-changing in children’s games was a way of preparing for a future in which, for whatever reasons, any of those children—by then adults—might face unforeseen circumstances, forcing them to accept or reject new realities, or to promote new changes.

In other words, those childhood games, far from being frivolous ways to pass the time, were meaningful activities that combined budding interpersonal relationships with moments of exploration, creativity, and experimentation. This fostered personal growth and even cognitive transformation.

This situation is what Dr. John Vervaeke from the University of Toronto calls "serious play." It refers to a process in which a dynamic relationship emerges between the current structure and spontaneous innovation, allowing one to explore the new while simultaneously standing on the firm ground of past experience.

In childhood, we engage in children’s games. In adulthood, serious play includes practices from wisdom traditions, sciences, and states of consciousness beyond the surface-level awareness of daily life. One such serious play that integrates imagination, critical thinking, and intuition is philosophy.

When we stop playing seriously, philosophy (and everything in life) becomes a matter of tradition and dogma. That’s why Nietzsche spoke (in Beyond Good and Evil, 211) of those "philosophers of the future" who possess the ability to break free from the frameworks and values of their own time.

According to Nietzsche, all philosophy is a philosophy of the future. Nietzsche emphasized the idea that philosophy is forward-looking, shaping and influencing the future through its critique of contemporary values, systems, and thought.

Nietzsche often portrayed philosophers as those who pave the way for new ways of thinking, challenging stagnant traditions to create frameworks for humanity's progress. Thus, disconnected from the future and from thinking, we are left with nothing but anguish or escapism.

Less than a century ago, Swiss psychologist Jean Piaget was among the first researchers to determine that children are not less intelligent than adults; rather, they are in a distinct stage of cognitive development. As they progress through this development, children acquire greater abilities to understand reality, the world, and society.

Based on what little I’ve read about advancements in cognitive sciences and recent philosophical and theological proposals, I believe that we, as adults, are stuck in our own stage of cognitive development—almost like young children who confuse size with quantity or weight with volume. However, in our case, the issue is both tragic and dangerous.

According to Piaget, early thinking is dominated by a focus on a single aspect of a situation, by perceptual dominance, and by perspectives limited by the egocentrism inherent in an age where the child depends on adults and, therefore, seeks to capture their attention.

Reviewing the elements of the so-called preoperational stage of cognitive development, it is saddening to see that these same elements now dominate the psychological state of much of humanity. This is a humanity in which certain aspects of cognitive development either never fully emerge or do so inconsistently or inadequately, constrained by cultural or environmental factors.

For instance, according to Piaget, children under the age of seven are generally unable to recognize that rearranging objects in a set does not change their quantity. This is because they lack the ability to mentally reverse the action (reversibility) or to consider multiple aspects of a situation simultaneously (decentration).

Similarly, many adults struggle with complex systems thinking—the ability to perceive and integrate multiple layers of complexity without resorting to oversimplification. This may represent a latent cognitive ability that remains underdeveloped.

Moreover, accepting and navigating ambiguous or contradictory information without needing immediate resolution may be another cognitive capacity that is still nascent for most people.

Just as the “conservation of number” in early childhood focuses on the spatial arrangement of objects, the “conservation of time” in adults might involve understanding that certain processes or truths are not bound to immediate perceptions or results. This understanding is essential for long-term thinking and foresight.

Many philosophers and thinkers have long explored the idea that humanity is still in development. Friedrich Nietzsche described humans as a “bridge” toward greater potential, while Teilhard de Chardin envisioned a collective consciousness (noosphere) as the next stage of human evolution. Even Carl Jung suggested that humanity’s struggles reflect “unexamined shadows.”

Our technological achievements also highlight our immaturity: we wield powerful tools, like artificial intelligence, to amplify existing problems rather than solve them.

Seeing humanity as immature, however, is not a condemnation—it’s an opportunity. Recognizing our immaturity is the first step toward creating a future where humanity reaches its full potential and highest aspirations.

As individuals and as a collective, we are becoming. Growth is not just possible—it is inevitable when we recognize the opportunity within our challenges as an opportunity to grow, to learn, and to coevolve.

Throughout human history, an innumerable number of people—including prophets, philosophers, artists, and activists—have voiced their concern and lament over the level of corruption and folly in their communities, regardless of the era, place, language, or beliefs of those expressing these grievances and warnings.

At times, these calls for sanity and mutual respect, largely ignored, are easy to find and read, like the messages of the prophets in the Hebrew scriptures, the early fragments of Heraclitus, Socrates’ dialogues, or Apuleius’ amusing tale of us being turned into donkeys.

Closer to our own time, we could mention Kant in What is Enlightenment? where he explores the immaturity of those who should already be mature but prefer to depend on others rather than assume their own responsibilities. And we must mention Kafka, who so accurately turns us into repulsive insects when we become useless to consumer society.

Yet, in some cases, warnings about corruption and folly are hidden in plain sight, in a text published worldwide in nearly every language but rarely read in depth. Here, it’s verse 10 of what’s known as the Epistle of Jude, a text without consensus on when, where, or by whom it was written.

This is what the text says (in my own translation): “There are people who disregard (disrespect, mock) those things they are unable to see (understand) and whatever they are able to perceive they grasp instinctively, like other living beings living unaware of their spiritual (cosmic) connection. Their actions and ignorance lead them to their inevitable downfall.”

Though written nearly two millennia ago, this text aptly reflects two tendencies in today’s world: the tendency to discard deeper knowledge, wisdom, or spiritual insight in favor of what is immediately practical or data-driven, and the tendency to act on instinct, reacting to reality impulsively and without critical thought or reflection.

Just as those two thousand years ago disregarded what they couldn’t understand, today we are content to passively receive information from social networks, discarding anything that requires a slower, more comprehensive reading that could lead us to rethink, discard, or expand ideas or experiences to deepen our connection with reality.

We live in such a complex era, flooded with information (not always reliable) and a constant avalanche of new and disruptive technologies, that our frustration with life reaches a level where we prefer to disconnect from a reality we perceive as lacking meaning or direction. But the solution isn’t always having a screen in front of our eyes.

The “inevitable downfall” mentioned in Jude 10 may or may not be so, but it seems to mirror the existential risks humanity faces today. Ignoring our spiritual or cosmic connection may lead us down a path that could result in ecological, social, and moral crises.

As Juan Ruiz de Alarcón wrote in the 17th century (The Suspicious Truth, Act One): “He who lives without being noticed, he who merely adds to the numbers and does what everyone else does, how does he differ from a beast?”