Project Vision 21

Recent studies seem to confirm that the amount of waste orbiting the Earth has reached such a level that this “space debris” is already multiplying due to collisions between these objects, threatening not only satellites and space travel, but even, if the problem worsens, humans could become “trapped” on this planet.

The so-called “Kessler Syndrome” was presented as a theoretical scenario in 1978 by Donald J. Kessler, a NASA scientist, that at some point the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) would be so high that collisions between satellites and space debris would become self-sustaining, leading to a cascading chain reaction of these collisions.

That theory is now a reality, 46 years later, or very close to being one, according to Holger Krag, head of Space Safety at the European Space Agency (ESA), who, in a statement, said that current technology is “insufficient to prevent the risks” generated by the rapid accumulation of debris in space.

The Earth's orbital environment has become fragile, endangering the long-term sustainability of space exploration, including the interruption on Earth of services such as the Internet, television, telephony, communications and satellite navigation.

The Kessler Syndrome seems to connect naturally with the Dunning-Kruger Effect, so called for the two surnames of the psychologists who described how those with limited knowledge or skills often overestimate what they know or what they can do, while the opposite happens for those with greater knowledge or skills.

In other words, the Kessler Syndrome appears to be (metaphorically or literally) the space-based expression of the Dunning-Kruger Effect, as both focus on the human tendency to underestimate the complexity of a situation and overestimate our ability to control the situation, whether at a personal level or in terms of the sustainability of the space environment.

One might assume, for example, that since space is vast, the probability of satellite collisions is negligible, while ignoring the growing orbital clutter and debris cascade.

The same individual cognitive bias (the Dunning-Kruger Effect) that perpetuates errors in personal or professional settings appears to have contributed to the failure to adequately recognize the growing problem of space debris (the Kessler Syndrome).

In other words, the Kessler Syndrome can be seen as a metaphor for uncontrolled cognitive errors. That is, in the same way that a satellite collision can trigger a cascade of debris, a mistaken belief, fueled by overconfidence, can lead to larger systemic failures.

To continue the comparison, just as we surround our planet with waste, we also constantly surround ourselves with “trash,” presented as “entertainment”, “information,” “education”, “expert opinion”, and even “education”, among many other names.

One day, perhaps soon, there will be so much space junk and existential trash around our planet and around ourselves that the accumulation of “cognitive waste” will lead us into a spiral of self-reinforcing bad decisions, preventing us from seeing the “space” (literal and metaphorical) for personal growth and co-creation.

The solution lies in encouraging self-awareness and fostering continuous learning, humility, and a commitment to evolving competence.